State of the Presidential Race
Created by Jacob Schak
Popular Vote Estimate: Obama by 10.3%
Electoral Vote Assessment: Leans Obama by 306-191-41
Electoral Vote Estimate
Safe Obama: 98 (7 states + D.C.)
Solid Obama: 155 (12 states)
Leans Obama: 20 (3 states)
Edge Obama: 33 (2 states)
Toss-Up: 41 (3 states)
Edge McCain: 26 (2 states)
Leans McCain: 39 (5 states)
Solid McCain: 107 (13 states)
Safe McCain: 19 (3 states)
States by Category
Safe Obama: |
Solid Obama: |
Leans Obama: |
Edge Obama: |
Toss-Up: |
Edge McCain: |
Leans McCain: |
Solid McCain: |
Safe McCain: |
California Connecticut District of Columbia Hawaii Maryland Massachusetts Rhode Island Vermont |
Delaware Illinois* Maine Michigan Minnesota New Jersey New Mexico New York Oregon Pennsylvania Washington Wisconsin |
Colorado Iowa New Hampshire |
Ohio Virginia |
Florida Missouri North Dakota |
Indiana North Carolina |
Arizona** Georgia Mississippi Montana Nevada |
Alaska Arkansas Idaho Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Oklahoma South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas West Virginia Wyoming |
Alabama Nebraska Utah |
Detail In Order of Obama Strength
State |
Obama |
McCain |
Undecided/Other |
Obama-McCain Index |
Margin of Victory Prediction |
Lower Estimate+ |
Upper Estimate+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
District of Columbia |
90%+ |
10%- |
N/A |
125+ |
80%+ |
N/A |
N/A |
Hawaii |
61.0% |
31.0% |
8.0% |
46.0 |
40.4% |
31.5% |
49.3% |
Vermont |
60.7% |
31.7% |
7.6% |
44.7 |
39.1% |
32.7% |
45.4% |
Maryland |
54.6% |
30.1% |
15.3% |
34.1 |
33.0% |
29.0% |
37.0% |
Rhode Island |
52.9% |
29.2% |
17.9% |
31.6 |
31.9% |
27.9% |
35.9% |
California |
53.3% |
32.1% |
14.6% |
29.5 |
28.4% |
24.4% |
32.4% |
Massachusetts |
53.4% |
32.6% |
14.0% |
29.2 |
27.9% |
23.9% |
31.9% |
Connecticut |
53.6% |
35.0% |
11.4% |
27.2 |
25.0% |
21.0% |
29.0% |
New York |
51.2% |
33.2% |
15.6% |
24.2 |
23.9% |
19.9% |
27.9% |
Illinois |
51.0% |
34.2% |
14.8% |
22.8 |
22.3% |
18.3% |
26.3% |
Minnesota |
51.1% |
34.5% |
14.4% |
22.7 |
22.0% |
18.0% |
26.0% |
Washington |
50.9% |
37.8% |
11.3% |
19.0 |
17.5% |
13.5% |
21.5% |
Maine |
49.5% |
35.7% |
14.8% |
18.3 |
18.1% |
14.1% |
22.1% |
Wisconsin |
50.2% |
38.9% |
10.9% |
16.5 |
15.1% |
11.1% |
19.1% |
New Jersey |
48.1% |
36.6% |
15.3% |
14.6 |
14.8% |
10.8% |
18.8% |
Delaware |
50.0% |
41.0% |
9.0% |
14.0 |
12.3% |
3.4% |
21.3% |
Oregon |
48.3% |
38.2% |
13.5% |
13.4 |
13.1% |
9.1% |
17.1% |
New Mexico |
48.1% |
37.9% |
14.0% |
13.3 |
13.2% |
9.2% |
17.2% |
Pennsylvania |
48.2% |
38.5% |
13.3% |
12.9 |
12.6% |
8.6% |
16.6% |
Michigan |
47.6% |
39.1% |
13.3% |
11.1 |
10.9% |
6.9% |
14.9% |
New Hampshire |
47.4% |
40.4% |
12.2% |
9.4 |
9.1% |
5.1% |
13.1% |
Iowa |
45.2% |
38.7% |
16.1% |
6.7 |
7.6% |
3.6% |
11.6% |
Colorado |
47.6% |
44.9% |
7.5% |
5.3 |
4.2% |
0.2% |
8.2% |
Ohio |
45.9% |
42.4% |
11.7% |
4.4 |
4.4% |
0.4% |
8.4% |
Virginia |
46.7% |
44.1% |
9.2% |
4.3 |
3.7% |
-0.3% |
7.7% |
Florida |
44.9% |
45.7% |
9.4% |
-0.9 |
-0.9% |
-4.9% |
3.1% |
North Dakota |
43.3% |
42.8% |
13.9% |
-1.2 |
-0.3% |
-5.4% |
4.9% |
Missouri |
43.9% |
44.6% |
11.5% |
-1.8 |
-1.3% |
-5.3% |
2.7% |
North Carolina |
43.6% |
45.2% |
11.2% |
-3.0 |
-2.5% |
-6.5% |
1.5% |
Indiana |
42.4% |
43.0% |
14.6% |
-3.2 |
-2.0% |
-6.0% |
2.0% |
Montana |
43.0% |
46.1% |
10.9% |
-5.1 |
-4.4% |
-9.6% |
0.7% |
Nevada |
41.3% |
44.9% |
13.8% |
-7.3 |
-5.9% |
-9.9% |
-1.9% |
Georgia |
42.7% |
48.2% |
9.1% |
-7.8 |
-7.2% |
-11.2% |
-3.2% |
Arizona |
40.3% |
43.8% |
15.9% |
-8.2 |
-6.4% |
-10.4% |
-2.4% |
Mississippi |
43.0% |
50.6% |
6.4% |
-9.6 |
-9.1% |
-13.1% |
-5.1% |
South Carolina |
39.5% |
44.0% |
16.5% |
-10.0 |
-8.0% |
-12.0% |
-4.0% |
Alaska |
42.4% |
50.0% |
7.6% |
-10.2 |
-9.5% |
-13.5% |
-5.5% |
Texas |
38.9% |
43.3% |
17.8% |
-10.5 |
-8.2% |
-12.2% |
-4.2% |
Arkansas |
40.3% |
47.4% |
12.3% |
-11.8 |
-10.3% |
-14.3% |
-6.3% |
South Dakota |
38.7% |
44.8% |
16.5% |
-12.4 |
-10.3% |
-14.3% |
-6.3% |
Idaho |
39.0% |
52.0% |
9.0% |
-19.0 |
-17.2% |
-26.1% |
-8.2% |
Kansas |
36.9% |
48.7% |
14.4% |
-19.9 |
-17.5% |
-21.5% |
-13.5% |
Louisiana |
37.1% |
50.5% |
12.4% |
-21.3 |
-19.0% |
-23.0% |
-15.0% |
Oklahoma |
35.7% |
48.0% |
16.3% |
-21.6 |
-19.0% |
-23.0% |
-15.0% |
West Virginia |
35.9% |
49.4% |
14.7% |
-22.6 |
-20.0% |
-26.4% |
-13.7% |
Kentucky |
36.1% |
49.8% |
14.1% |
-22.6 |
-20.1% |
-24.1% |
-16.1% |
Wyoming |
37.6% |
53.5% |
8.9% |
-23.3 |
-21.0% |
-27.3% |
-14.7% |
Tennessee |
35.5% |
50.2% |
14.3% |
-24.2 |
-21.6% |
-25.6% |
-17.6% |
Alabama |
35.3% |
50.7% |
14.0% |
-25.1 |
-22.4% |
-26.4% |
-18.4% |
Nebraska |
34.4% |
53.8% |
11.8% |
-30.0 |
-27.0% |
-31.0% |
-23.0% |
Utah |
29.3% |
56.9% |
13.8% |
-43.3 |
-39.3% |
-43.3% |
-35.3% |
A Brief Note on Methodology
Obama and McCain vote estimates for each state are based on a trend estimate by pollster.com.
Obama-McCain Index=(Obama-McCain)+(Obama-45); The Obama-45 component compensates for the "hidden Clinton/McCain vote" effect.
Safe Obama if 25.0 < Obama-McCain Index
Solid Obama if 10.0 < Obama-McCain Index < 25.0
Leans Obama if 5.0 < Obama-McCain Index < 10.0
Edge Obama if 2.5 < Obama-McCain Index < 5.0
Toss-Up if |Obama-McCain Index| < 2.5
Edge McCain if -5.0 < Obama-McCain Index < -2.5
Leans McCain if -10.0 < Obama-McCain Index < -5.0
Solid McCain if -25.0 < Obama-McCain Index < -10.0
Safe McCain if Obama-McCain < 25.0
Safe Obama means that the state has virtually no chance of voting for McCain.
Solid Obama means that the state would vote for Obama, if the election were held today, but could plausibly become competitive.
Leans Obama means that the state is a battleground that clearly favors Obama.
Edge Obama means that the state is a battleground that slightly favors Obama.
Toss-Up means I have no idea who the state would vote for if the election were held today.
Edge McCain means that the state is a battleground that slightly favors McCain.
Leans McCain means that the state is a battleground that clearly favors McCain.
Solid McCain means that the state would vote for McCain, if the election were held today, but could plausibly become competitive.
Safe McCain means that the state has virtually no chance of voting for Obama.
Popular vote estimates and margin of victory predictions are more statistically involved. Hence, I will not explain these indicators on this web page.
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* Obama's home state.
** McCain's home state.
+Using a 95 percent level of confidence.