Trip Report

To: ACM1, Association for Computing Machinery
      San Jose, CA
      3/11-14/2001

This was a four-year follow-up to the successful ACM97, which celebrated
the 50th anniversary of the founding of the association.  This was not 
the typical research-oriented conference with numerous parallel sessions.
Rather it was a three-day symposium of approximately 18 hour-long lectures
delivered by CEO's from the Silicon Valley, directors of government agencies
and major contributors to academic research. There was joined by an 
exposition and an educator's conference. Many of the talks were intended 
to be forward looking. The conference was web-cast and will be published 
in a book. About 2,000 were in live attendance. Many seemed to be taking 
a break from their work in the valley. many of us old-timers were invited
from academia and came for the free lunch. Others were looking for a lead
on future investments (Nasdaq took a nosedive during the conference).

The conference was interesting and informative. I took as many notes as I 
ever have at a conference. And I intend to read the book. However the 
conference fell short of ACM97. Some of the talks hadn't changed much, 
e.g. Kurzweil's interactive alter ego still seemed to be fragile. One 
of the government director's was lamenting the attrition of women in CS; 
but her data was four years out-of-date.  Some of the CEOs were pushing 
their new products, e.g. MicroSoft thinks that XML is as much a revolution 
as PCs. There was no opportunity for the audience to question the speaker 
- although the moderator had good prepared questions.

So what's new? For thirty-some years, I've been making rolling 5-year 
predictions. For example, that in 5-years networks will be wireless and 
that in 5 years keyboards will be largely replaced by voice input and
that in 5 years a BS in math will be worth more than a BS in CS.  I've 
missed some big boats too - widespread use of PCs for example. But finally 
5 years seems about right for many predictions. At the conference, we 
expressed our views electronically - wirelessly, of course. We voted by 
exposing either the green side or the red side of a reflective pallet toward an 
electronic reader. Percentages favoring a position could be determined 
or the median time for a prediction to come true could be estimated. 
Here are a few of the results: 
1. The desktop metaphor will cease in four years.
2. Books will be largely replaced by electronic media within 25 years.
3. Keyboard input will be surpassed by voice input in four years.
4. Two-thirds believe that English will still be the primary language for 
computers in 50 years. ("French is passe.")
5. A similar number feel that potentially dangerous research should be halted.
6. Three-fourths think the oceans will be engineered.
7. Only about 50% thought that computers would relieve stress and give us 
more time.
8. But 90% thought that computers improve the quality of life.
9. 50% thought Moore's Law would begin petering out in 5 years.
10. 40% thought that computers or robots would replace dogs as man's best 
friend.
11. Only 15% bought into Kurzwiel's prediction that we'll obtain mortality 
by transferring our individual intelligences onto computers.

Costs:
  Registration $395 (A Special ACM/Educator's rate. The normal rate was $1195!).
  Airfare $308.
  Lodging $253 for two nights. (Many places wanted more than that for one night.)