Supplemental Materials for
Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, available from the Johns Hopkins University Press, Amazon, and other booksellers.

Description: Cover Art Description: Bio Picture

Winner, 2017 National Student Clearinghouse Research Center Award for Outstanding American Association of Collegiate Registrar's and Admissions Officers Strategic Enrollment Management Research Presentation

"Fascinating and ambitious. There will be a wide and eager audience for this book."
(Martin J. Finkelstein, coauthor of The Faculty Factor: Reassessing the American Academy in a Turbulent Era)

"An ambitious, original book that provides a new and much-needed general framework for detailed, fact-based forecasting of the demand for higher education over the next 15–20 years. Grawe's scholarship is well beyond sound."
(Bradley G. Lewis, Union College)

"Numbers and statistics aren’t always what they seem. Nathan Grawe provides a readable and insightful look at the sweeping demographic change occurring in America and what it means for different types of colleges. Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education is an important read for college leaders and policy makers alike."
(Jon McGee, author of Breakpoint: The Changing Marketplace for Higher Education)

"Anyone who cares about the future of higher education in America will need to carefully study Nathan Grawe’s Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education. By disaggregating poorly understood demographic shifts on the near horizon, Grawe fundamentally changes the narrative of what colleges can do to thrive."
(Scott Bierman, Beloit College)

This page provides supplemental material for Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education including Higher Education Demand Indwex (HEDI) forecasts, graphs and tables of those forecasts at at the level of Census division, and color versions of the maps presented in the book.

In the titles below, below ELS refers to the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study and ACS to the 2011 American Community Survey.

For any questions, please contact me at ngrawe@carleton.edu.


Raw HEDI Forecasts

     Primary forecast file (Excel file)
     This file contains the primary HEDI forecasts explored in the book. The file contains five tabs:
     *All: All students
     *by Race-Eth: All students divided by race/ethnicity
     *by Parent Ed: All students divided by whether parents' hold BAs
     *by Family Inc: All students divided by whether family income is in the top 13% of family income distribution ($100,000 in 2002 ELS)
     *Full Pay: Subset of all students whos parents both hold BA and whose family income is in top 13% of the income distribution among families with a child of that age

     Each tab contains seven panels--one for each of seven forecasts:
     *Alive: Number of 18-year-olds
     *Any College: Number who attend any post-secondary institution
     *2-Yr: Number who attend a two-year institution
     *4-Yr: Number who attend a four-year institution
     *Reg'l 4-Yr: Number who attend a four-year institution ranked outside top-100 colleges and universities
     *Nat'l 4-Yr: Number who attend a four-year institution ranked among 51st-100th colleges or universities
     *Elite 4-Yr: Number who attend a four-year institution ranked among top-50 colleges or universities

     In each tab, to the right of the location-specific forecasts, the file includes totals and breakdowns by Census division.

     Forecasts based on alternative policy targeting race/ethnicity. (Excel file)
     This file is organized in the same way in the primary forecast described above. Forecasts for 2012-2014 are the same as in that file. Forecasts for 2027-2029 are those that obtain when the coefficients on race/ethnicity are halved as described in Chapters 8 and 10.

     Forecasts based on alternative policy targeting family income. (Excel file)
     This file is organized in the same way in the primary forecast described above. Forecasts for 2012-2014 are the same as in that file. Forecasts for 2027-2029 are those that obtain when the coefficients on family income are halved as described in Chapters 8 and 10.


Color Versions of Forecast Maps in the Book

Chapter 1:

     Figure 1.1 Net migration rate between cities and non-metropolitan portions of states for children ages 2 to 17 between the years 2010 and 2011
     Figure 1.5 Forecasted growth in high school graduates, 2012 to 2032
     Figure 1.6 Forecasted growth in public high school graduates by race/ethnicity, 2012 to 2032

Chapter 4:

     Figure 4.2 Forecasted growth in 18-year-olds, 2012 to 2029
     Figure 4.3 Forecasted growth in college-going students, 2012 to 2029
     Figure 4.4 Forecasted growth in 18-year-olds by race/ethnicity, 2012 to 2029
     Figure 4.5 Forecasted growth in 18-year-olds by parental education, 2012 to 2029

Chapter 5:

     Figure 5.4 Forecasted growth in students who will attend two-year institutions, 2012 to 202

Chapter 6:

     Figure 6.3 Forecasted growth in students who will attend a regional four-year institution, 2012 to 2029
     Figure 6.4 Forecasted growth in students who will attend national four-year institutions, 2012 to 2029
     Figure 6.5 Forecasted growth in students who will attend an elite national four-year institution, 2012 to 2029

Chapter 8:

     Figure 8.1 Forecasted growth in two-year college attendance under status quo and alternative policies that mitigate effects of income and race/ethnicity, 2012 to 2029
     Figure 8.2 Forecasted growth in regional four-year college attendance under status quo and alternative policies that mitigate effects of income and race/ethnicity, 2012 to 2029
     Figure 8.3 Forecasted growth in combined national and elite four-year college attendance under status quo and alternative policies that mitigate effects of income and race/ethnicity, 2012 to 2029


Supplemental Materials Not in the Book

Chapter 1:

     Forecasted number high school graduates 2012 to 2028 relative to 2012 level, by Census division and year of high school graduation (line graph)
     Forecasted change in number of high school graduates from 2012 to 2029, by Census division and states of largest increase and decrease (table)

Chapter 4:

     Forecasted number of college-going individuals 2012 to 2029 relative to 2012 number, by Census division and year of high school graduation (line graph)
     Forecasted change in number of students who will attend post-secondary institution from 2012 to 2029, by Census division and areas of largest increase and decrease (table)

Chapter 5:

     Forecasted number of students who will attend a two-year institution relative to 2012 number, by Census division and year of high school graduation (line graph)
     Forecasted change in number of students who will attend a two-year institution from 2012 to 2029, by Census division and areas of largest increase and decrease (table)

Chapter 6:

     Forecasted number of students who will attend a regional four-year institution relative to 2012 number, by Census division and year of high school graduation (line graph)
     Forecasted change in number of students who will attend a regional four-year institution from 2012 to 2029, by Census division and areas of largest increase and decrease (table)
     Forecasted number of students who will attend national four-year institutions relative to 2012 number, by Census division and year of high school graduation (line graph)
     Forecasted change in number of students who will attend national four-year institutions from 2012 to 2029, by Census division and areas of largest increase and decrease (table)
     Forecasted number of students who will attend elite national four-year institutions relative to 2012 number, by Census division and year of high school graduation (line graph)
     Forecasted change in number of students who will attend elite national four-year institutions from 2012 to 2029, by Census division and areas of largest increase and decrease (table)

Chapter 7:

     Forecasted number of full-pay students who will attend four-year institutions relative to 2012 number, by Census region and year of high school graduation (line graph)

Chapter 11:

     Forecasted rate of growth in students who will attend college by institution type, 2012 to 2020 (color map)

Technical Appendix:

Detailed descriptions of the cross-walk between variable definitions in the ELS and ACS/Census
     Sex (table)
     Race/Ethnicity (table)
     Parent Education (table)
     Family Structure (table)
     Geographic Variables (table)

Coefficients of Logit Regressions of College-Going Outcomes on Demographic Predictors by Nativity and Family Composition
     Native, Mother and Father Present (table)
     Native, Only Mother Present (table)
     Native, Only Father Present (table)
     Native, Neither Mother and Father Present (table)
     Foreign-Born (table)


© 2016 Nathan D. Grawe